Business plan, recomputed
A living model: every assumption is a parameter, and the whole plan recomputes in milliseconds.
Peak funding need
10.5 M€
reached in month 53
Recommended raise
13.5 M€
Peak need plus 25 %, rounded up to the next half-million.
Sustained positive EBITDA
Year 4 · 44
Customers at break-even
11,798
Income statement
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customers | 675 | 2,419 | 5,713 | 9,975 | 15,695 |
| Lockers | 346 | 1,234 | 2,913 | 5,089 | 8,006 |
| ARR | 1.56 M€ | 5.47 M€ | 12.4 M€ | 21.0 M€ | 32.3 M€ |
| Revenue | 0.76 M€ | 3.39 M€ | 8.60 M€ | 16.1 M€ | 25.8 M€ |
| Cost of sales | -0.31 M€ | -1.15 M€ | -2.84 M€ | -5.32 M€ | -8.47 M€ |
| Gross profit | 0.45 M€ | 2.25 M€ | 5.76 M€ | 10.8 M€ | 17.3 M€ |
| Gross margin | 59.1% | 66.2% | 67.0% | 66.9% | 67.2% |
| Payroll | -1.43 M€ | -2.69 M€ | -4.36 M€ | -6.37 M€ | -8.49 M€ |
| Marketing | -0.28 M€ | -0.86 M€ | -1.78 M€ | -2.60 M€ | -3.70 M€ |
| Overheads | -0.51 M€ | -0.93 M€ | -1.50 M€ | -2.11 M€ | -2.63 M€ |
| EBITDA | -1.78 M€ | -2.23 M€ | -1.87 M€ | -0.31 M€ | 2.49 M€ |
| Depreciation | -0.06 M€ | -0.19 M€ | -0.36 M€ | -0.57 M€ | -0.83 M€ |
| Operating profit | -1.83 M€ | -2.43 M€ | -2.23 M€ | -0.89 M€ | 1.66 M€ |
| Corporate tax | -€0 | -€0 | -€0 | -€0 | -€93,943 |
| Carried-forward losses | 1.83 M€ | 4.26 M€ | 6.50 M€ | 7.38 M€ | 6.12 M€ |
| Capital expenditure | -0.45 M€ | -0.89 M€ | -1.18 M€ | -1.65 M€ | -1.98 M€ |
| Free cash flow | -2.23 M€ | -3.12 M€ | -3.05 M€ | -1.96 M€ | 0.41 M€ |
Why this model is conservative
Payroll is computed post by post, with indexation, rather than extrapolated: year-5 EBITDA comes out lower than a high projection, and it is this conservative figure that is kept. The client base, the locker fleet, ARR and gross margin, for their part, match the initial projection to within a few percent.
| Metric | Initial projection | Model kept | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Customers · Year 1 | 677 | 675 | -0.3% |
| Customers · Year 3 | 5,660 | 5,713 | +0.9% |
| Customers · Year 5 | 15,519 | 15,695 | +1.1% |
| Lockers | 7,915 | 8,006 | +1.1% |
| ARR | 2.98 M€ | 32.3 M€ | +985.3% |
| Revenue | 2.46 M€ | 25.8 M€ | +950.2% |
| Gross margin | 64.8% | 67.2% | +3.6% |
| EBITDA | 0.11 M€ | 2.49 M€ | +2,084.5% |
| Peak funding need | 1.17 M€ | 10.5 M€ | +798.6% |
| Sustained positive EBITDA | 53 | 44 | -17.0% |
Unit economics
Monthly ARPU
€172
LTV (simple formula)
€5,760
Average lifetime 50
Discounted LTV, net of service cost
€3,009
The simple formula ignores discounting and the cost of serving a customer. This one does not.
LTV / CAC
13.4 ×
CAC payback 3.7
Valuation
Two readings published together — an EBITDA multiple and an ARR multiple — so as not to show only the more flattering one.
| Method | Terminal value | Net present value | Internal rate of return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year-5 EBITDA × 10 | 24.9 M€ | 3.44 M€ | 39.0% |
| Year-5 ARR × 4 | 129.2 M€ | 45.4 M€ | 134.9% |
In year 5 the company has only just turned profitable, so an EBITDA multiple yields a low value. SaaS investors reason in ARR multiples, but those multiples swing hard with the market.
Scenarios
| Scenario | Customers in year 5 | ARR | Peak funding need | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pessimistic | 9,775 | 19.0 M€ | 21.7 M€ | beyond 60 months |
| BaseBase | 15,695 | 32.3 M€ | 10.5 M€ | 44 |
| Optimistic | 21,593 | 45.6 M€ | 6.28 M€ | 31 |
Year-5 EBITDA sensitivity
Each driver moved by ± 20 %, all else equal.
Acquisition volume5.95 M€
Price and PPP index5.42 M€
Locker rent3.84 M€
Churn2.30 M€
Acquisition cost1.48 M€
Hosting0.51 M€
Assumptions
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New customers per year | 806 | 2,266 | 4,440 | 6,185 | 8,615 |
| Monthly churn | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| Acquisition cost | €350 | €380 | €400 | €420 | €430 |
| Purchasing-power-parity index | 1.00 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.78 |
| Monthly hosting | €8,302 | €18,682 | €39,036 | €68,005 | €106,175 |